# Have Complete Thoughts
**作者**: Alfred Lin
**日期**: 2026-10-13T13:51:34.000Z
**来源**: [https://x.com/Alfred_Lin/status/2110005526495121624](https://x.com/Alfred_Lin/status/2110005526495121624)
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Technology moves incredibly fast. To build enduring value, we need to make leaps, and also have complete thoughts before those leaps.
Last week, [@satyanadella](https://x.com/@satyanadella) posted two thoughtful articles, [The Infinite SaaS Factory](https://x.com/satyanadella/status/2108213283144810958), and [Models as Insider Risks in the Super Intelligence Era](https://x.com/satyanadella/status/2108931348857827686). They are both worth a read, as are his other articles since his inaugural [A Frontier Without an Ecosystem is Not Stable](https://x.com/satyanadella/status/2066182223213293753) in June.
It made me think back to a past conference, where he provided one of the most fascinating conversations of the event. In short, he lamented that technology companies do not build enough enduring franchise value and sometimes wishes he worked in a different industry. Technology changes so fast. It is hard to keep up with every bit of change, but if you don't, something can completely disrupt you in one or two decades.
As part of Satya's career, he has helped Microsoft make leaps in response to technological changes. The PC era would carry Microsoft for a long time, but MS-DOS, the Office suite, and many other applications needed to shift to a client-server architecture. Windows NT and Windows 95 were significant changes that made that happen. However, in the same week Microsoft was celebrating the launch of Windows 95, Netscape had its IPO. Shortly after, Microsoft would assemble a small team to launch Internet Explorer to challenge Netscape. The race for the internet was on, and Microsoft would initially win the browser war only to lose search. When Satya took over as CEO, Microsoft was also late to mobile/cloud, and it took a decade for Microsoft to shift their applications to the mobile/cloud and win enterprises to Azure. Today, he wants to ensure Microsoft leads the AI transformation.
Satya shared that technologists have a substantial pre-existing condition called NIH (Not Invented Here). He points out various tools are available to founders, CEOs, and management.
First, building a lot yourself might be strategically important, but Satya encourages his teams to have a complete thought. Most technologists start with the product, and you have to, but it is not just about the product. You need to connect it to the strategy, your right to serve the customer, your distribution advantages, your business model, your right to win, and what you will have when you win. He used Internet Explorer as an example of lacking complete thought. The whole strategy was to build a better product and have better distribution so customers would come, but then what? Microsoft had correctly predicted that the operating system would be the most strategic layer for PCs. They thought the equivalent, a browser, would serve the same purpose for the internet, but search became a more critical "organizing layer" than they understood. They should have seen that from the browser data.
Second, Satya also mentioned that partnerships were invaluable from the beginning of Microsoft when they partnered with IBM to create MS-DOS, to working with PC manufacturers to pre-install Microsoft software, to partnering early with OpenAI. Google's early success also came through partnerships with ISPs and internet portals. Young startups tend to shy away from partnerships with large tech giants due to the power imbalance, but some of the iconic companies of today leverage partnerships early. They did so carefully and thoughtfully.
Third, there is swallowing your pride and paying up to merge with or acquire another company. Sometimes, you must acknowledge that another company has you beat, and it is better to join forces with them. Once that happens, Satya asks if they have the brand permission to complete such a transaction, how they can be a better owner for the company, and what joining forces allows both sides to accomplish. These conversations are always hard. They are a lot easier when you have answers to those three questions. This framework led Satya to win over LinkedIn, Github, and Activision.
Finally, Satya praised Apple for always having complete thoughts before their leaps. Apple did not waste valuable resources to beat Yahoo, Palm, Blackberry, [Phone.com](//Phone.com), or Microsoft CE. They waited until they had a winning strategy and had such complete thoughts that they won coming from behind in mobile.
In summary, technology moves incredibly fast. To build enduring value, we will need to make leaps. We can and should use all available tools to make leaps: build, partner, and buy. Most importantly, have complete thoughts before leaps.
## 相关链接
- [Alfred Lin](https://x.com/Alfred_Lin)
- [@Alfred_Lin](https://x.com/Alfred_Lin)
- [@satyanadella](https://x.com/@satyanadella)
- [The Infinite SaaS Factory](https://x.com/satyanadella/status/2108213283144810958)
- [Models as Insider Risks in the Super Intelligence Era](https://x.com/satyanadella/status/2108931348857827686)
- [A Frontier Without an Ecosystem is Not Stable](https://x.com/satyanadella/status/2066182223213293753)
- [Phone.com](https://phone.com/)
- [Upgrade to Premium](https://x.com/i/premium_sign_up)
- [9:51 PM · Oct 13, 2026](https://x.com/Alfred_Lin/status/2110005526495121624)
- [3,096 Views](https://x.com/Alfred_Lin/status/2110005526495121624/analytics)
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*导出时间: 2026/10/13 23:10:17*
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## 中文翻译
# 拥有完整的思考
**作者**： Alfred Lin
**日期**： 2026-10-13T13:51:34.000Z
**来源**： [https://x.com/Alfred_Lin/status/2110005526495121624](https://x.com/Alfred_Lin/status/2110005526495121624)
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技术发展极其迅速。要构建持久的价值，我们需要实现跨越式发展，同时也要在跨越之前拥有完整的思考。
上周，[@satyanadella](https://x.com/@satyanadella) 发布了两篇发人深省的文章：[《无限的 SaaS 工厂》](https://x.com/satyanadella/status/2108213283144810958)和[《超级智能时代的模型内部风险》](https://x.com/satyanadella/status/2108931348857827686)。这两篇文章都值得一读，他自六月发表首篇文章[《没有生态系统的前沿是不稳定的》](https://x.com/satyanadella/status/2066182223213293753)以来的其他文章同样值得阅读。
这让我回想起过去的一次大会，他在会上进行了一场全场最精彩的对话。简而言之，他感叹科技公司未能建立足够持久的品牌价值，有时甚至希望自己身处另一个行业。技术变化太快了。很难跟上每一个变化，但如果你跟不上，一二十年内就可能被彻底颠覆。
在 Satya 的职业生涯中，他帮助微软针对技术变革实现了多次跨越。PC 时代本可以让微软长期维持下去，但 MS-DOS、Office 套件以及许多其他应用需要转向客户端-服务器架构。Windows NT 和 Windows 95 是实现这一转变的重大变革。然而，就在微软庆祝 Windows 95 发布的同一周，Netscape 上市了。此后不久，微软组建了一个小团队推出 Internet Explorer 挑战 Netscape。互联网竞赛就此展开，微软虽然最初赢得了浏览器大战，却输掉了搜索。当 Satya 接任 CEO 时，微软在移动/云领域也已落后，微软花了十年时间才将应用迁移到移动/云平台并赢得企业客户使用 Azure。如今，他希望确保微软引领 AI 转型。
Satya 分享道，技术人员普遍存在一种叫 NIH（非我发明症）的“既往病史”。他指出，创始人、CEO 和管理层有多种工具可以使用。
第一，大量自主研发可能在战略上很重要，但 Satya 鼓励他的团队拥有完整的思考。大多数技术人员的出发点是产品，你不得不如此，但这不仅仅是产品的问题。你需要把它与战略、你服务客户的资格、你的分销优势、你的商业模式、你制胜的资格，以及你获胜后所拥有的东西联系起来。他以 Internet Explorer 为缺乏完整思考的例子。整个战略就是打造更好的产品并拥有更好的分销，从而吸引客户，然后呢？微软曾正确地预测操作系统将是 PC 最具战略意义的层级。他们认为浏览器作为对应物，会在互联网上发挥同样的作用，但搜索成为了比他们所理解的更为关键的“组织层级”。他们本应从浏览器数据中看到这一点。
第二，Satya 还提到，合作伙伴关系从一开始就非常宝贵——从与 IBM 合作创建 MS-DOS，到与 PC 制造商合作预装微软软件，再到早期与 OpenAI 合作。谷歌早期的成功同样来自与 ISP 和互联网门户网站的合作伙伴关系。年轻的初创公司往往因力量不对等而回避与大型科技巨头的合作，但如今一些标志性公司在早期就善用了合作伙伴关系。它们这样做时既谨慎又有深思熟虑。
第三，就是放下骄傲，付出代价去合并或收购另一家公司。有时，你必须承认另一家公司胜过了你，与它们联手是更好的选择。一旦出现这种情况，Satya 会问：他们是否有品牌授权来完成这样一笔交易？他们如何成为这家公司更好的所有者？联手能让双方达成什么？这些对话总是很艰难。当你对这三个问题有了答案时，事情会容易得多。正是这一框架让 Satya 成功收购了 LinkedIn、GitHub 和动视暴雪。
最后，Satya 称赞苹果总是在跨越之前拥有完整的思考。苹果没有浪费宝贵的资源去击败雅虎、Palm、黑莓、[Phone.com](//Phone.com) 或微软 CE。他们一直等到拥有制胜的战略，并且拥有如此完整的思考，以至于在移动领域后来居上。
总而言之，技术发展极其迅速。要构建持久的价值，我们需要实现跨越。我们可以且应该使用所有可用的工具来实现跨越：自建、合作和收购。最重要的是，在跨越之前拥有完整的思考。
## 相关链接
- [Alfred Lin](https://x.com/Alfred_Lin)
- [@Alfred_Lin](https://x.com/Alfred_Lin)
- [@satyanadella](https://x.com/@satyanadella)
- [The Infinite SaaS Factory](https://x.com/satyanadella/status/2108213283144810958)
- [Models as Insider Risks in the Super Intelligence Era](https://x.com/satyanadella/status/2108931348857827686)
- [A Frontier Without an Ecosystem is Not Stable](https://x.com/satyanadella/status/2066182223213293753)
- [Phone.com](https://phone.com/)
- [Upgrade to Premium](https://x.com/i/premium_sign_up)
- [2026年10月13日 21:51](https://x.com/Alfred_Lin/status/2110005526495121624)
- [3,096 次浏览](https://x.com/Alfred_Lin/status/2110005526495121624/analytics)
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*导出时间： 2026/10/13 23:10:17* 
