Prediction: AI will collapse

wordgrammer 2026-09-03 5.7 KB 1.8M 3.8K 𝕏 文章列表

作者通过类比互联网泡沫时期的历史，预测AI发展将经历类似'坍缩'。互联网泡沫正确预见了互联网的巨大价值，但错误认为人人都会建网站；实际上互联网坍缩成了社交媒体和视频流媒体这种更简单、可100%沙盒化的形态。同样，当前AI领域'人人都会做软件''所有人都会用编程Agent'的说法也犯了类似错误。作者认为所有人都会使用Agent，但只有不到1%会用编程Agent。关键在于Agent需要一个'傻瓜式'的零失败率沙盒环境，必须杜绝误购买、误发消息、信息泄露等风险，这需要彻底重新思考抽象设计，而非仅靠模型能力提升。

AI预测 Agent 沙盒互联网泡沫社交媒体视频流产品思维 TAM分析消费者行为零失败率

# Prediction: AI will collapse **作者**: wordgrammer **日期**: 2026-09-02T21:30:46.000Z **来源**: [https://x.com/wordgrammer/status/2095263188153401712](https://x.com/wordgrammer/status/2095263188153401712) --- ![Image](/doc/5837/image/img_c65d5ec757ea.jpg) The dot com bubble got some things right. It noticed that the internet was going to be big. It noticed that the value generated by the internet would roughly scale in proportion with the amount of fiber laid. It recognized a latent need in all humans to use technology for self-expression. There are a few things that it missed. First: it thought that html and javascript were the means by which common people would express themselves. The dot com bubble thought everyone would have a website. As it turns out, normal people prefer expressing themselves with text, images, and video. The first 1% of internet adopters expressed themselves by creating personal websites. But as the internet grew, we didn’t get more and more websites. The internet “collapsed” into a much simpler form of distribution: social media, which only let people express themselves in an incredibly limited fashion. Among social media, 90% is text, image, or video. Html is not a good form of self-expression. It’s hard to secure. It’s hard to distribute. It’s hard to reason about. You need to learn how to code. Images are an incredible form of self-expression. Non-technical people love editing photos of themselves. Non-technical people hate making websites. The TAM of Instagram is 100x larger than the TAM of Godaddy. Second: it missed that 90% of the internet’s traffic would come through video. As the total usage of fiber increased, we saw the internet once again “collapsed” into a simpler form of distribution: video streaming. Now, Netflix, YouTube, Tik Tok, Instagram, and so on take up the majority of data passed through internet fiber. Roughly correct: - GDP growth would scale with fiber usage - GDP growth would scale with people in network Not correct: - Fiber usage would scale with number of websites - People in the network would scale with number of websites It would be more true to say: - Fiber usage would scale with video streaming - People in the network would scale with social media adoption Why were social media and video streaming so popular? If I had to guess, I think the reason is that they are 100% sandboxable. Compared to html and javascript, which are only 99% sandboxable. You can ensure best practices, beware untrusted sites, and take a course in cybersecurity to keep a personal website secure. But there is still a 1% risk. You have to worry about phishing, cross-site scripting, malware, viruses, fake website impersonations, scams, and so on and so forth. For consumers, who are generally lazy, this 1% is too much to ask. Consumers want to completely turn their brain off. Consumers prefer social media and video streaming to “browsing the web” because they can do the former while drunk, in bed, having sex, on the toilet, during their lunch break, in the background while working on homework, or while their brain is 99% preoccupied with a difficult task at work. The three big cornerstones of social media — text, image, and video — also behave much more predictably than html and javascript. You can build recommendation algorithms. You can design content delivery networks to store and cache media. You can hire engineers to design scalable systems. It is difficult to design recommendation algorithms, CDNs, and scalable systems for html and javascript. And so, the user experience of Netflix, YouTube, Instagram, and Tik Tok gradually improved over time, while browsing websites became worse and worse. The modern AI discourse is making a similar mistake to saying “everyone will have a website” back in 1995. I hear stuff like: - People want personal software - Everyone will build a mobile app - The market for software is infinite No. You are directionally correct, but you are missing something big. Every human will use agents. But less than 1% will use coding agents. (In the same way every human has a “personal page” through social media, but less than 1% have a personal website.) You need an “idiotproof” sandbox. Your consumer agent, as well as agents for enterprise use cases, must have a 0% chance of failure. Your consumer agent must be usable: - While drunk - In bed - Having sex - On the toilet - During lunch break - In the background while working on homework - While your brain is 99% preoccupied with a difficult task at work It must be impossible for AI to: make purchases you did not intend, send messages you did not intend, and access information you did not want to share. It cannot be “difficult” for these to happen. It must be impossible. (In the same way that YouTube videos have a 0% chance of phishing, cross-site scripting, malware, and viruses.) No amount of models getting better will give them a 0% chance of failure. To get to a 0% chance of failure, you need to be creative. You need to innovate. You need to radically rethink your abstractions. Every human has a “personal page” through social media, but less than 1% has a personal website. What is the same shift for AI? Every human will use _____ agents, but less than 1% use coding agents. What is _____? What is the “idiotproof” sandbox for agents? ## 相关链接 - [wordgrammer](https://x.com/wordgrammer) - [@wordgrammer](https://x.com/wordgrammer) - [Upgrade to Premium](https://x.com/i/premium_sign_up) - [5:30 AM · Sep 3, 2026](https://x.com/wordgrammer/status/2095263188153401712) - [1M Views](https://x.com/wordgrammer/status/2095263188153401712/analytics) - [View quotes](https://x.com/wordgrammer/status/2095263188153401712/quotes) --- *导出时间: 2026/9/3 23:29:27* --- ## 中文翻译 # 预测：AI 将走向坍缩 **作者**: wordgrammer **日期**: 2026-09-02T21:30:46.000Z **来源**: [https://x.com/wordgrammer/status/2095263188153401712](https://x.com/wordgrammer/status/2095263188153401712) --- ![Image](/doc/5837/image/img_c65d5ec757ea.jpg) 互联网泡沫在某些方面看对了。它察觉到互联网将会变得庞大。它察觉到互联网产生的价值大致会与铺设的光纤数量成正比。它认识到所有人都潜在地希望用技术来表达自我。但它也漏掉了几件事。第一：它以为 HTML 和 JavaScript 是普通人表达自我的方式。互联网泡沫认为每个人都会有自己的网站。但事实证明，普通人更喜欢用文字、图片和视频来表达自己。最早的 1% 互联网用户通过创建个人网站来表达自己。但随着互联网的发展，网站并没有越来越多。互联网“坍缩”成了一种简单得多的分发形式：社交媒体，它只允许人们以极其有限的方式表达自己。而在社交媒体中，90% 的内容是文字、图片或视频。 HTML 并不是一种好的自我表达形式。它难以保证安全，难以分发，难以推理。你需要学会编程。图片则是一种极好的自我表达形式。非技术人士喜欢编辑自己的照片，却讨厌做网站。 Instagram 的市场规模（TAM）是 Godaddy 的 100 倍。第二：它漏掉了互联网 90% 的流量将来自视频。随着光纤总使用量的增长，我们看到互联网再次“坍缩”成一种更简单的分发形式：视频流媒体。如今，Netflix、YouTube、TikTok、Instagram 等占据了通过互联网光纤传输的大部分数据。大致正确： - GDP 增长与光纤使用量成正比 - GDP 增长与网络中的人数成正比不正确： - 光纤使用量与网站数量成正比 - 网络中的人数与网站数量成正比更准确的说法应该是： - 光纤使用量与视频流媒体成正比 - 网络中的人数与社交媒体的普及程度成正比为什么社交媒体和视频流媒体如此流行？如果让我猜，我认为原因是它们是 100% 可沙箱化的，而 HTML 和 JavaScript 只有 99% 可沙箱化。你可以遵循最佳实践、警惕不可信网站、上一门网络安全课程来保护个人网站的安全。但仍然存在 1% 的风险。你必须担心钓鱼、跨站脚本、恶意软件、病毒、假冒网站、诈骗等等。对于普遍懒惰的消费者来说，这 1% 的要求太高了。消费者想完全把大脑关掉。消费者更喜欢社交媒体和视频流媒体，而不是“浏览网页”，因为他们可以在喝醉时、在床上、在做爱时、在上厕所时、在午休时、在写作业时的背景中，或者在头脑 99% 被工作中的难题占据时使用前者。社交媒体的三大基石——文字、图片和视频——也比 HTML 和 JavaScript 的行为可预测得多。你可以构建推荐算法，可以设计内容分发网络来存储和缓存媒体，可以聘请工程师设计可扩展的系统。而为 HTML 和 JavaScript 设计推荐算法、CDN 和可扩展系统则要困难得多。于是，Netflix、YouTube、Instagram 和 TikTok 的用户体验随着时间推移不断提升，而浏览网页的体验却越来越糟。当今关于 AI 的讨论正在犯一个与 1995 年“每个人都会有网站”类似的错误。我听到类似这样的话： - 人们想要个人软件 - 每个人都会开发移动应用 - 软件的市场是无限的不对。你的方向是对的，但你漏掉了一个重大问题。每个人都会使用智能体（agent），但只有不到 1% 的人会使用编程智能体。（就像每个人都通过社交媒体拥有一个“个人页面”，但只有不到 1% 的人拥有个人网站一样。）你需要一个“防呆”沙箱。你的消费级智能体，以及面向企业场景的智能体，必须具有 0% 的失败概率。你的消费级智能体必须能够在以下情况下使用： - 喝醉时 - 在床上 - 做爱时 - 上厕所时 - 午休时 - 写作业时的背景中 - 头脑 99% 被工作中的难题占据时 AI 必须不可能：购买你不想购买的东西、发送你不想发送的消息、访问你不想分享的信息。这些事情不能只是“很难”发生，而必须是不可能发生。（就像 YouTube 视频有 0% 的概率带来钓鱼、跨站脚本、恶意软件和病毒一样。）模型再怎么进步也无法带来 0% 的失败概率。要达到 0% 的失败概率，你需要创造力。你需要创新。你需要彻底重新思考你的抽象方式。每个人都通过社交媒体拥有一个“个人页面”，但只有不到 1% 的人拥有个人网站。对于 AI 来说，同样的转变是什么？每个人都会使用 _____ 智能体，但只有不到 1% 的人使用编程智能体。_____ 是什么？智能体的“防呆”沙箱是什么？ ## 相关链接 - [wordgrammer](https://x.com/wordgrammer) - [@wordgrammer](https://x.com/wordgrammer) - [升级到 Premium](https://x.com/i/premium_sign_up) - [2026年9月3日早上5:30](https://x.com/wordgrammer/status/2095263188153401712) - [100万次浏览](https://x.com/wordgrammer/status/2095263188153401712/analytics) - [查看引用](https://x.com/wordgrammer/status/2095263188153401712/quotes) --- *导出时间: 2026/9/3 23:29:27*