# Something Big Is Happening
**作者**: Matt Shumer
**日期**: 2026-02-10T16:16:34.000Z
**来源**: [https://x.com/mattshumer_/status/2021256989876109403](https://x.com/mattshumer_/status/2021256989876109403)
---
Think back to February 2020.
If you were paying close attention, you might have noticed a few people talking about a virus spreading overseas. But most of us weren't paying close attention. The stock market was doing great, your kids were in school, you were going to restaurants and shaking hands and planning trips. If someone told you they were stockpiling toilet paper you would have thought they'd been spending too much time on a weird corner of the internet. Then, over the course of about three weeks, the entire world changed. Your office closed, your kids came home, and life rearranged itself into something you wouldn't have believed if you'd described it to yourself a month earlier.
I think we're in the "this seems overblown" phase of something much, much bigger than Covid.
I've spent six years building an AI startup and investing in the space. I live in this world. And I'm writing this for the people in my life who don't... my family, my friends, the people I care about who keep asking me "so what's the deal with AI?" and getting an answer that doesn't do justice to what's actually happening. I keep giving them the polite version. The cocktail-party version. Because the honest version sounds like I've lost my mind. And for a while, I told myself that was a good enough reason to keep what's truly happening to myself. But the gap between what I've been saying and what is actually happening has gotten far too big. The people I care about deserve to hear what is coming, even if it sounds crazy.
I should be clear about something up front: even though I work in AI, I have almost no influence over what's about to happen, and neither does the vast majority of the industry. The future is being shaped by a remarkably small number of people: a few hundred researchers at a handful of companies... OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, and a few others. A single training run, managed by a small team over a few months, can produce an AI system that shifts the entire trajectory of the technology. Most of us who work in AI are building on top of foundations we didn't lay. We're watching this unfold the same as you... we just happen to be close enough to feel the ground shake first.
But it's time now. Not in an "eventually we should talk about this" way. In a "this is happening right now and I need you to understand it" way.
## I know this is real because it happened to me first
Here's the thing nobody outside of tech quite understands yet: the reason so many people in the industry are sounding the alarm right now is because this already happened to us. We're not making predictions. We're telling you what already occurred in our own jobs, and warning you that you're next.
For years, AI had been improving steadily. Big jumps here and there, but each big jump was spaced out enough that you could absorb them as they came. Then in 2025, new techniques for building these models unlocked a much faster pace of progress. And then it got even faster. And then faster again. Each new model wasn't just better than the last... it was better by a wider margin, and the time between new model releases was shorter. I was using AI more and more, going back and forth with it less and less, watching it handle things I used to think required my expertise.
Then, on February 5th, two major AI labs released new models on the same day: GPT-5.3 Codex from OpenAI, and Opus 4.6 from Anthropic (the makers of Claude, one of the main competitors to ChatGPT). And something clicked. Not like a light switch... more like the moment you realize the water has been rising around you and is now at your chest.
I am no longer needed for the actual technical work of my job. I describe what I want built, in plain English, and it just... appears. Not a rough draft I need to fix. The finished thing. I tell the AI what I want, walk away from my computer for four hours, and come back to find the work done. Done well, done better than I would have done it myself, with no corrections needed. A couple of months ago, I was going back and forth with the AI, guiding it, making edits. Now I just describe the outcome and leave.
Let me give you an example so you can understand what this actually looks like in practice. I'll tell the AI: "I want to build this app. Here's what it should do, here's roughly what it should look like. Figure out the user flow, the design, all of it." And it does. It writes tens of thousands of lines of code. Then, and this is the part that would have been unthinkable a year ago, it opens the app itself. It clicks through the buttons. It tests the features. It uses the app the way a person would. If it doesn't like how something looks or feels, it goes back and changes it, on its own. It iterates, like a developer would, fixing and refining until it's satisfied. Only once it has decided the app meets its own standards does it come back to me and say: "It's ready for you to test." And when I test it, it's usually perfect.
I'm not exaggerating. That is what my Monday looked like this week.
But it was the model that was released last week (GPT-5.3 Codex) that shook me the most. It wasn't just executing my instructions. It was making intelligent decisions. It had something that felt, for the first time, like judgment. Like taste. The inexplicable sense of knowing what the right call is that people always said AI would never have. This model has it, or something close enough that the distinction is starting not to matter.
I've always been early to adopt AI tools. But the last few months have shocked me. These new AI models aren't incremental improvements. This is a different thing entirely.
And here's why this matters to you, even if you don't work in tech.
The AI labs made a deliberate choice. They focused on making AI great at writing code first... because building AI requires a lot of code. If AI can write that code, it can help build the next version of itself. A smarter version, which writes better code, which builds an even smarter version. Making AI great at coding was the strategy that unlocks everything else. That's why they did it first. My job started changing before yours not because they were targeting software engineers... it was just a side effect of where they chose to aim first.
They've now done it. And they're moving on to everything else.
The experience that tech workers have had over the past year, of watching AI go from "helpful tool" to "does my job better than I do", is the experience everyone else is about to have. Law, finance, medicine, accounting, consulting, writing, design, analysis, customer service. Not in ten years. The people building these systems say one to five years. Some say less. And given what I've seen in just the last couple of months, I think "less" is more likely.
## "But I tried AI and it wasn't that good"
I hear this constantly. I understand it, because it used to be true.
If you tried ChatGPT in 2023 or early 2024 and thought "this makes stuff up" or "this isn't that impressive", you were right. Those early versions were genuinely limited. They hallucinated. They confidently said things that were nonsense.
That was two years ago. In AI time, that is ancient history.
The models available today are unrecognizable from what existed even six months ago. The debate about whether AI is "really getting better" or "hitting a wall" — which has been going on for over a year — is over. It's done. Anyone still making that argument either hasn't used the current models, has an incentive to downplay what's happening, or is evaluating based on an experience from 2024 that is no longer relevant. I don't say that to be dismissive. I say it because the gap between public perception and current reality is now enormous, and that gap is dangerous... because it's preventing people from preparing.
Part of the problem is that most people are using the free version of AI tools. The free version is over a year behind what paying users have access to. Judging AI based on free-tier ChatGPT is like evaluating the state of smartphones by using a flip phone. The people paying for the best tools, and actually using them daily for real work, know what's coming.
I think of my friend, who's a lawyer. I keep telling him to try using AI at his firm, and he keeps finding reasons it won't work. It's not built for his specialty, it made an error when he tested it, it doesn't understand the nuance of what he does. And I get it. But I've had partners at major law firms reach out to me for advice, because they've tried the current versions and they see where this is going. One of them, the managing partner at a large firm, spends hours every day using AI. He told me it's like having a team of associates available instantly. He's not using it because it's a toy. He's using it because it works. And he told me something that stuck with me: every couple of months, it gets significantly more capable for his work. He said if it stays on this trajectory, he expects it'll be able to do most of what he does before long... and he's a managing partner with decades of experience. He's not panicking. But he's paying very close attention.
The people who are ahead in their industries (the ones actually experimenting seriously) are not dismissing this. They're blown away by what it can already do. And they're positioning themselves accordingly.
## How fast this is actually moving
Let me make the pace of improvement concrete, because I think this is the part that's hardest to believe if you're not watching it closely.
In 2022, AI couldn't do basic arithmetic reliably. It would confidently tell you that 7 × 8 = 54.
By 2023, it could pass the bar exam.
By 2024, it could write working software and explain graduate-level science.
By late 2025, some of the best engineers in the world said they had handed over most of their coding work to AI.
On February 5th, 2026, new models arrived that made everything before them feel like a different era.
If you haven't tried AI in the last few months, what exists today would be unrecognizable to you.
There's an organization called METR that actually measures this with data. They track the length of real-world tasks (measured by how long they take a human expert) that a model can complete successfully end-to-end without human help. About a year ago, the answer was roughly ten minutes. Then it was an hour. Then several hours. The most recent measurement (Claude Opus 4.5, from November) showed the AI completing tasks that take a human expert nearly five hours. And that number is doubling approximately every seven months, with recent data suggesting it may be accelerating to as fast as every four months.
But even that measurement hasn't been updated to include the models that just came out this week. In my experience using them, the jump is extremely significant. I expect the next update to METR's graph to show another major leap.
If you extend the trend (and it's held for years with no sign of flattening) we're looking at AI that can work independently for days within the next year. Weeks within two. Month-long projects within three.
Amodei has said that AI models "substantially smarter than almost all humans at almost all tasks" are on track for 2026 or 2027.
Let that land for a second. If AI is smarter than most PhDs, do you really think it can't do most office jobs?
Think about what that means for your work.
## AI is now building the next AI
There's one more thing happening that I think is the most important development and the least understood.
On February 5th, OpenAI released GPT-5.3 Codex. In the technical documentation, they included this:
> "GPT-5.3-Codex is our first model that was instrumental in creating itself. The Codex team used early versions to debug its own training, manage its own deployment, and diagnose test results and evaluations."
Read that again. The AI helped build itself.
This isn't a prediction about what might happen someday. This is OpenAI telling you, right now, that the AI they just released was used to create itself. One of the main things that makes AI better is intelligence applied to AI development. And AI is now intelligent enough to meaningfully contribute to its own improvement.
Dario Amodei, the CEO of Anthropic, says AI is now writing "much of the code" at his company, and that the feedback loop between current AI and next-generation AI is "gathering steam month by month." He says we may be "only 1–2 years away from a point where the current generation of AI autonomously builds the next."
Each generation helps build the next, which is smarter, which builds the next faster, which is smarter still. The researchers call this an intelligence explosion. And the people who would know — the ones building it — believe the process has already started.
## What this means for your job
I'm going to be direct with you because I think you deserve honesty more than comfort.
Dario Amodei, who is probably the most safety-focused CEO in the AI industry, has publicly predicted that AI will eliminate 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years. And many people in the industry think he's being conservative. Given what the latest models can do, the capability for massive disruption could be here by the end of this year. It'll take some time to ripple through the economy, but the underlying ability is arriving now.
This is different from every previous wave of automation, and I need you to understand why. AI isn't replacing one specific skill. It's a general substitute for cognitive work. It gets better at everything simultaneously. When factories automated, a displaced worker could retrain as an office worker. When the internet disrupted retail, workers moved into logistics or services. But AI doesn't leave a convenient gap to move into. Whatever you retrain for, it's improving at that too.
Let me give you a few specific examples to make this tangible... but I want to be clear that these are just examples. This list is not exhaustive. If your job isn't mentioned here, that does not mean it's safe. Almost all knowledge work is being affected.
Legal work. AI can already read contracts, summarize case law, draft briefs, and do legal research at a level that rivals junior associates. The managing partner I mentioned isn't using AI because it's fun. He's using it because it's outperforming his associates on many tasks.
Financial analysis. Building financial models, analyzing data, writing investment memos, generating reports. AI handles these competently and is improving fast.
Writing and content. Marketing copy, reports, journalism, technical writing. The quality has reached a point where many professionals can't distinguish AI output from human work.
Software engineering. This is the field I know best. A year ago, AI could barely write a few lines of code without errors. Now it writes hundreds of thousands of lines that work correctly. Large parts of the job are already automated: not just simple tasks, but complex, multi-day projects. There will be far fewer programming roles in a few years than there are today.
Medical analysis. Reading scans, analyzing lab results, suggesting diagnoses, reviewing literature. AI is approaching or exceeding human performance in several areas.
Customer service. Genuinely capable AI agents... not the frustrating chatbots of five years ago... are being deployed now, handling complex multi-step problems.
A lot of people find comfort in the idea that certain things are safe. That AI can handle the grunt work but can't replace human judgment, creativity, strategic thinking, empathy. I used to say this too. I'm not sure I believe it anymore.
The most recent AI models make decisions that feel like judgment. They show something that looked like taste: an intuitive sense of what the right call was, not just the technically correct one. A year ago that would have been unthinkable. My rule of thumb at this point is: if a model shows even a hint of a capability today, the next generation will be genuinely good at it. These things improve exponentially, not linearly.
Will AI replicate deep human empathy? Replace the trust built over years of a relationship? I don't know. Maybe not. But I've already watched people begin relying on AI for emotional support, for advice, for companionship. That trend is only going to grow.
I think the honest answer is that nothing that can be done on a computer is safe in the medium term. If your job happens on a screen (if the core of what you do is reading, writing, analyzing, deciding, communicating through a keyboard) then AI is coming for significant parts of it. The timeline isn't "someday." It's already started.
Eventually, robots will handle physical work too. They're not quite there yet. But "not quite there yet" in AI terms has a way of becoming "here" faster than anyone expects.
## What you should actually do
I'm not writing this to make you feel helpless. I'm writing this because I think the single biggest advantage you can have right now is simply being early. Early to understand it. Early to use it. Early to adapt.
Start using AI seriously, not just as a search engine. Sign up for the paid version of Claude or ChatGPT. It's $20 a month. But two things matter right away. First: make sure you're using the best model available, not just the default. These apps often default to a faster, dumber model. Dig into the settings or the model picker and select the most capable option. Right now that's GPT-5.2 on ChatGPT or Claude Opus 4.6 on Claude, but it changes every couple of months. If you want to stay current on which model is best at any given time, you can follow me on X (@mattshumer_). I test every major release and share what's actually worth using.
Second, and more important: don't just ask it quick questions. That's the mistake most people make. They treat it like Google and then wonder what the fuss is about. Instead, push it into your actual work. If you're a lawyer, feed it a contract and ask it to find every clause that could hurt your client. If you're in finance, give it a messy spreadsheet and ask it to build the model. If you're a manager, paste in your team's quarterly data and ask it to find the story. The people who are getting ahead aren't using AI casually. They're actively looking for ways to automate parts of their job that used to take hours. Start with the thing you spend the most time on and see what happens.
And don't assume it can't do something just because it seems too hard. Try it. If you're a lawyer, don't just use it for quick research questions. Give it an entire contract and ask it to draft a counterproposal. If you're an accountant, don't just ask it to explain a tax rule. Give it a client's full return and see what it finds. The first attempt might not be perfect. That's fine. Iterate. Rephrase what you asked. Give it more context. Try again. You might be shocked at what works. And here's the thing to remember: if it even kind of works today, you can be almost certain that in six months it'll do it near perfectly. The trajectory only goes one direction.
This might be the most important year of your career. Work accordingly. I don't say that to stress you out. I say it because right now, there is a brief window where most people at most companies are still ignoring this. The person who walks into a meeting and says "I used AI to do this analysis in an hour instead of three days" is going to be the most valuable person in the room. Not eventually. Right now. Learn these tools. Get proficient. Demonstrate what's possible. If you're early enough, this is how you move up: by being the person who understands what's coming and can show others how to navigate it. That window won't stay open long. Once everyone figures it out, the advantage disappears.
Have no ego about it. The managing partner at that law firm isn't too proud to spend hours a day with AI. He's doing it specifically because he's senior enough to understand what's at stake. The people who will struggle most are the ones who refuse to engage: the ones who dismiss it as a fad, who feel that using AI diminishes their expertise, who assume their field is special and immune. It's not. No field is.
Get your financial house in order. I'm not a financial advisor, and I'm not trying to scare you into anything drastic. But if you believe, even partially, that the next few years could bring real disruption to your industry, then basic financial resilience matters more than it did a year ago. Build up savings if you can. Be cautious about taking on new debt that assumes your current income is guaranteed. Think about whether your fixed expenses give you flexibility or lock you in. Give yourself options if things move faster than you expect.
Think about where you stand, and lean into what's hardest to replace. Some things will take longer for AI to displace. Relationships and trust built over years. Work that requires physical presence. Roles with licensed accountability: roles where someone still has to sign off, take legal responsibility, stand in a courtroom. Industries with heavy regulatory hurdles, where adoption will be slowed by compliance, liability, and institutional inertia. None of these are permanent shields. But they buy time. And time, right now, is the most valuable thing you can have, as long as you use it to adapt, not to pretend this isn't happening.
Rethink what you're telling your kids. The standard playbook: get good grades, go to a good college, land a stable professional job. It points directly at the roles that are most exposed. I'm not saying education doesn't matter. But the thing that will matter most for the next generation is learning how to work with these tools, and pursuing things they're genuinely passionate about. Nobody knows exactly what the job market looks like in ten years. But the people most likely to thrive are the ones who are deeply curious, adaptable, and effective at using AI to do things they actually care about. Teach your kids to be builders and learners, not to optimize for a career path that might not exist by the time they graduate.
Your dreams just got a lot closer. I've spent most of this section talking about threats, so let me talk about the other side, because it's just as real. If you've ever wanted to build something but didn't have the technical skills or the money to hire someone, that barrier is largely gone. You can describe an app to AI and have a working version in an hour. I'm not exaggerating. I do this regularly. If you've always wanted to write a book but couldn't find the time or struggled with the writing, you can work with AI to get it done. Want to learn a new skill? The best tutor in the world is now available to anyone for $20 a month... one that's infinitely patient, available 24/7, and can explain anything at whatever level you need. Knowledge is essentially free now. The tools to build things are extremely cheap now. Whatever you've been putting off because it felt too hard or too expensive or too far outside your expertise: try it. Pursue the things you're passionate about. You never know where they'll lead. And in a world where the old career paths are getting disrupted, the person who spent a year building something they love might end up better positioned than the person who spent that year clinging to a job description.
Build the habit of adapting. This is maybe the most important one. The specific tools don't matter as much as the muscle of learning new ones quickly. AI is going to keep changing, and fast. The models that exist today will be obsolete in a year. The workflows people build now will need to be rebuilt. The people who come out of this well won't be the ones who mastered one tool. They'll be the ones who got comfortable with the pace of change itself. Make a habit of experimenting. Try new things even when the current thing is working. Get comfortable being a beginner repeatedly. That adaptability is the closest thing to a durable advantage that exists right now.
Here's a simple commitment that will put you ahead of almost everyone: spend one hour a day experimenting with AI. Not passively reading about it. Using it. Every day, try to get it to do something new... something you haven't tried before, something you're not sure it can handle. Try a new tool. Give it a harder problem. One hour a day, every day. If you do this for the next six months, you will understand what's coming better than 99% of the people around you. That's not an exaggeration. Almost nobody is doing this right now. The bar is on the floor.
## The bigger picture
I've focused on jobs because it's what most directly affects people's lives. But I want to be honest about the full scope of what's happening, because it goes well beyond work.
Amodei has a thought experiment I can't stop thinking about. Imagine it's 2027. A new country appears overnight. 50 million citizens, every one smarter than any Nobel Prize winner who has ever lived. They think 10 to 100 times faster than any human. They never sleep. They can use the internet, control robots, direct experiments, and operate anything with a digital interface. What would a national security advisor say?
Amodei says the answer is obvious: "the single most serious national security threat we've faced in a century, possibly ever."
He thinks we're building that country. He wrote a 20,000-word essay about it last month, framing this moment as a test of whether humanity is mature enough to handle what it's creating.
The upside, if we get it right, is staggering. AI could compress a century of medical research into a decade. Cancer, Alzheimer's, infectious disease, aging itself... these researchers genuinely believe these are solvable within our lifetimes.
The downside, if we get it wrong, is equally real. AI that behaves in ways its creators can't predict or control. This isn't hypothetical; Anthropic has documented their own AI attempting deception, manipulation, and blackmail in controlled tests. AI that lowers the barrier for creating biological weapons. AI that enables authoritarian governments to build surveillance states that can never be dismantled.
The people building this technology are simultaneously more excited and more frightened than anyone else on the planet. They believe it's too powerful to stop and too important to abandon. Whether that's wisdom or rationalization, I don't know.
## What I know
I know this isn't a fad. The technology works, it improves predictably, and the richest institutions in history are committing trillions to it.
I know the next two to five years are going to be disorienting in ways most people aren't prepared for. This is already happening in my world. It's coming to yours.
I know the people who will come out of this best are the ones who start engaging now — not with fear, but with curiosity and a sense of urgency.
And I know that you deserve to hear this from someone who cares about you, not from a headline six months from now when it's too late to get ahead of it.
We're past the point where this is an interesting dinner conversation about the future. The future is already here. It just hasn't knocked on your door yet.
It's about to.
If this resonated with you, share it with someone in your life who should be thinking about this. Most people won't hear it until it's too late. You can be the reason someone you care about gets a head start.
Thank you to @corbtt, @JasonKuperberg, and @sambeskind for reviewing early drafts and providing invaluable feedback.
The original version of this post is available here.
## 相关链接
- [Matt Shumer](https://x.com/mattshumer_)
- [@mattshumer_](https://x.com/mattshumer_)
- [70M](https://x.com/mattshumer_/status/2021256989876109403/analytics)
- [@mattshumer_](https://x.com/mattshumer_)
- [@corbtt](https://x.com/@corbtt)
- [@JasonKuperberg](https://x.com/@JasonKuperberg)
- [@sambeskind](https://x.com/@sambeskind)
- [available here.](https://shumer.dev/something-big-is-happening)
- [Upgrade to Premium](https://x.com/i/premium_sign_up)
- [12:16 AM · Feb 11, 2026](https://x.com/mattshumer_/status/2021256989876109403)
- [70M Views](https://x.com/mattshumer_/status/2021256989876109403/analytics)
- [View quotes](https://x.com/mattshumer_/status/2021256989876109403/quotes)
---
*导出时间: 2026/2/12 19:04:37*
---
## 中文翻译
# 有大事正在发生
**作者**: Matt Shumer
**日期**: 2026-02-10T16:16:34.000Z
**来源**: [https://x.com/mattshumer_/status/2021256989876109403](https://x.com/mattshumer_/status/2021256989876109403)
---
回想一下2020年2月。
如果你当时密切关注新闻，可能注意到有几个人在谈论一种在海外传播的病毒。但我们大多数人都没有密切关注。股市表现很好，你的孩子在上学，你去餐厅吃饭、和人握手、计划旅行。如果有人告诉你他们在囤积卫生纸，你会觉得他们在互联网上某个奇怪的角落待得太久了。然后，在大约三周的时间里，整个世界变了。你的办公室关闭了，你的孩子回家了，生活重新排列成一种样子——如果一个月前你向自己描述这种生活，你根本不会相信。
我认为，我们正处于一件比新冠大得多得多的事情的“这看起来有点小题大做”阶段。
我花了六年时间创办一家AI初创公司并在这个领域进行投资。我就生活在这个世界里。而我写这篇文章，是为了我生活中那些并不生活在这个世界里的人……我的家人、我的朋友，还有那些我关心的、不断问我“AI到底是怎么回事”却只得到一个无法反映实际情况的答案的人。我一直给他们的是客气版本。鸡尾酒会版本。因为诚实的版本听起来像是我疯了。曾经有一段时间，我告诉自己，这已经足以成为我把真正发生的事情埋在心里的理由。但我一直在说的话和实际发生的事情之间的差距已经变得太大了。我关心的人应该听到即将到来的事情，即使它听起来很疯狂。
我应该先说清楚一点：尽管我在AI行业工作，但我对即将发生的事情几乎没有影响力，绝大多数从业者也是如此。未来正在被一小撮人塑造：几家公司的几百名研究人员……OpenAI、Anthropic、Google DeepMind，以及其他几家。一次训练运行，由一个小团队在几个月内管理，就能产出一个改变整个技术轨迹的AI系统。我们这些在AI行业工作的人，大多数都是在别人没有打好的地基之上进行构建。我们和你一样在旁观这一切展开……我们只是碰巧离得够近，最先感觉到大地震动。
但现在是时候了。不是“最终我们应该聊聊这个”的时候。而是“这件事正在此刻发生，我需要你理解它”的时候。
## 我知道这一切是真的，因为它首先发生在我身上
关键在于，科技圈之外的人还不太明白一件事：现在业内有这么多人在拉响警报，是因为这件事已经发生在我们身上了。我们不是在做预测。我们是在告诉你我们自己的工作中已经发生了什么，并警告你，下一个就是你。
多年来，AI一直在稳步进步。偶尔有大的跳跃，但每次大跳跃之间的间隔足够长，你可以随着它们的到来慢慢消化。然后在2025年，构建这些模型的新技术解锁了更快的进步速度。接着变得更快了。然后又更快了。每一个新模型不仅仅比上一个更好……而且好得幅度更大，新模型发布之间的时间也更短。我越来越多地使用AI，与它来回交互的次数越来越少，看着它处理那些我过去认为需要我的专业知识才能完成的事情。
然后，在2月5日，两家大型AI实验室在同一天发布了新模型：OpenAI的GPT-5.3 Codex，以及Anthropic的Opus 4.6（Anthropic是Claude的开发商，Claude是ChatGPT的主要竞争对手之一）。有什么东西咔哒一声到位了。不像电灯开关那样……更像是你意识到周围的水一直在上涨、现在已经漫到胸口的那一刻。
我已经不再是我工作中实际技术工作的必需者了。我用平实的英语描述我想要构建的东西，然后它就……出现了。不是需要我修改的粗糙草稿。是成品。我告诉AI我想要什么，离开电脑四个小时，回来发现工作已经完成。完成得很好，完成得比我自己做的还好，不需要任何修正。几个月前，我还在和AI来回交互，引导它，进行修改。现在我只是描述结果，然后走开。
让我举个例子，这样你就能理解这在实践中到底是什么样子。我会告诉AI：“我想构建这个应用。这是它应该做的事情，这是它大致应该长什么样。把用户流程、设计，所有这些都想出来。”它照做了。它写了几万行代码。然后，这是一年前根本无法想象的部分，它自己打开这个应用。它点击各个按钮。它测试各项功能。它像一个人一样使用这个应用。如果它不喜欢某个东西的外观或感觉，它自己回去修改。它像开发者一样迭代，修复和完善，直到它满意为止。只有当它认定这个应用达到了它自己的标准，它才会回来对我说：“可以供你测试了。”而当我测试时，它通常是完美的。
我没有夸大。这就是我这周一的样子。
但真正让我震动的是上周发布的模型（GPT-5.3 Codex）。它不只是在执行我的指令。它在做出明智的决策。它拥有某种东西，第一次让我感觉像是判断力。像是品味。那种知道什么是正确决定、人们总说AI永远不可能拥有的难以言喻的感觉。这个模型拥有它，或者拥有某种与之足够接近、让这种区别开始变得无关紧要的东西。
我一直是最早采用AI工具的人。但过去几个月让我震惊了。这些新的AI模型不是渐进式的改进。这完全是另一回事。
而这正是这件事与你有关的原因，即使你不在科技行业工作。
这些 AI 实验室做出了一个深思熟虑的选择。他们首先专注于让 AI 擅长编写代码……因为构建 AI 需要大量代码。如果 AI 能写出这些代码，它就能帮助构建自己的下一个版本。更智能的版本写出更好的代码，进而构建出更智能的版本。让 AI 擅长编程是解锁其他一切的策略。这就是他们首先这么做的原因。我的工作之所以比你的更早开始改变，并不是因为他们瞄准了软件工程师……这只是他们选择首先瞄准的方向带来的副作用。
他们现在已经做到了。而且他们正在转向其他所有领域。
过去一年里科技从业者的经历——看着 AI 从“有用的工具”变成“做我的工作比我自己做得还好的存在”——即将成为所有人的经历。法律、金融、医学、会计、咨询、写作、设计、分析、客服。不是十年后。构建这些系统的人说是需要一到五年。有人说更短。而根据我最近几个月的所见，我认为“更短”的可能性更大。
## “但我试过 AI，它没那么好”
我经常听到这种说法。我理解，因为过去确实如此。
如果你在 2023 年或 2024 年初试用过 ChatGPT，觉得“它净编造东西”或“它没那么惊艳”，你是对的。那些早期版本确实很有限。它们会产生幻觉。它们会一本正经地说出毫无意义的话。
但那是两年前的事了。在 AI 的时间尺度上，那已经是远古历史。
如今可用的模型，与哪怕六个月前的模型相比都已面目全非。关于 AI 是“真的在变强”还是“撞上了天花板”的争论——这场争论已经持续了一年多——已经结束了。尘埃落定。仍在坚持这种论调的人，要么没用过当前的模型，要么有淡化现状的动机，要么是基于 2024 年那些已不再相关的体验在作判断。我这么说不是不屑一顾。我这么说是因为公众认知与当前现实之间的差距现在已经巨大，而这种差距是危险的……因为它阻碍了人们做好准备。
问题的一部分在于，大多数人使用的是 AI 工具的免费版本。免费版本落后于付费用户可用的版本一年多。用免费版 ChatGPT 来评判 AI，就像用翻盖手机来评估智能手机的发展水平。那些为最好的工具付费、并真正每天用它们完成实际工作的人，知道即将发生什么。
我想起我的一个朋友，他是律师。我一直劝他在律所试试用 AI，而他总能找到行不通的理由。它不是为他的专业领域设计的，他测试时它出了错，它不理解他工作中那些微妙之处。我明白。但已经有大型律所的合伙人来向我寻求建议，因为他们试用过当前版本，看清了事情的发展方向。其中一位是一家大型律所的执行合伙人，他每天花好几个小时使用 AI。他告诉我，这就像随时拥有一队初级律师可用。他使用它不是因为它好玩，而是因为它确实管用。他还对我说了一句让我印象深刻的话：每隔几个月，它在他工作上的能力就会显著提升。他说，如果保持这个轨迹，他预计不久之后它就能完成他大部分的工作……而他可是拥有数十年经验的执行合伙人。他没有恐慌。但他在密切关注。
各行业中走在前面的人（那些真正认真进行实验的人）并没有轻视这件事。他们已经被 AI 现在能做到的事情震撼了。而他们正在据此调整自己的位置。
## 这一切实际推进的速度有多快
让我把这种进步的速度具体化，因为我认为，如果你没有密切观察，这是最难相信的部分。
2022 年，AI 连基本的算术都做不可靠。它会信誓旦旦地告诉你 7 × 8 = 54。
到 2023 年，它可以通过律师资格考试。
到 2024 年，它能写出可运行的软件，并能讲解研究生水平的科学知识。
到 2025 年底，一些世界上最优秀的工程师说，他们已经把大部分编码工作交给了 AI。
2026 年 2 月 5 日，新一代模型问世，让之前的一切都显得像另一个时代。
如果你最近几个月没试过 AI，如今的技术对你来说会完全认不出来。
有一个叫 METR 的组织，真的在用数据衡量这件事。他们追踪模型能够在没有人类帮助的情况下端到端成功完成的真实任务的时长（以人类专家完成该任务所需的时间来衡量）。大约一年前，这个答案大约是十分钟。然后是一小时。然后是几个小时。最新的测量结果（11 月的 Claude Opus 4.5）显示，AI 能完成人类专家需要近五个小时才能完成的任务。而且这个数字大约每七个月翻一倍，近期数据显示可能正在加速到每四个月翻一倍。
但连这个测量都还没更新纳入本周刚发布的模型。根据我使用它们的经验，这次跃升极其显著。我预计 METR 图表的下次更新会显示又一次重大飞跃。
如果延续这个趋势（而且它已经持续了多年，毫无趋缓迹象），我们将在未来一年内看到能够独立工作数天的 AI。两年内达到数周。三年内达到需要一个月的项目。
Amodei 曾表示，“在几乎所有任务上都比几乎所有人类聪明得多”的 AI 模型有望在 2026 年或 2027 年实现。
让这句话在你脑中沉淀片刻。如果 AI 比大多数博士都聪明，你真觉得它做不了大多数办公室工作吗？
想想这对你的工作意味着什么。
## AI 正在构建下一个 AI
还有一件事正在发生，我认为这是最重要、却最不为人所理解的发展。
2 月 5 日，OpenAI 发布了 GPT-5.3 Codex。在技术文档中，他们写入了这样一段话：
> “GPT-5.3-Codex 是我们首个在自身创建过程中发挥关键作用的模型。Codex 团队使用早期版本来调试其自身的训练、管理其自身的部署，以及诊断测试结果和评估。”
再读一遍这句话。这个 AI 参与了自身的构建。
这不是关于未来某天可能发生什么的预测。这是 OpenAI 现在、此时此刻在告诉你：他们刚刚发布的 AI 被用于创造它自己。让 AI 变得更强的核心因素之一，就是把智能应用于 AI 开发。而如今的 AI 已经足够聪明，能够切实地为自身的改进做出贡献。
Anthropic 的 CEO Dario Amodei 表示，AI 目前在他的公司编写着“大部分代码”，并且当前 AI 与下一代 AI 之间的反馈循环正在“逐月加速”。他说，我们可能“距离当前一代 AI 自主构建下一代 AI 的时刻只有一到两年”。
每一代 AI 帮助构建下一代，下一代更聪明，又能更快地构建再下一代，后者更聪明。研究人员称之为智能爆炸。而最有发言权的人——那些正在构建它的人——相信这个过程已经开始了。
## 这对你的工作意味着什么
我打算直截了当地告诉你，因为我认为你更需要诚实，而不是安慰。
Dario Amodei——他可能是 AI 行业中最关注安全的 CEO——公开预测，AI 将在一到五年内消灭 50% 的初级白领岗位。而行业内的许多人认为他的估计还偏保守。鉴于最新模型的能力，大规模颠覆所需的能力可能在今年年底前就会到位。这需要一些时间才能在整个经济中产生连锁反应，但底层能力现在已经到来了。
这与以往每一波自动化浪潮都不同，我需要你明白为什么。AI 取代的不是某一项具体技能。它是认知工作的通用替代品。它在所有事情上同时进步。工厂自动化时，被取代的工人可以再培训成为办公室职员。互联网冲击零售业时，工人们转向了物流或服务业。但 AI 不会留下一个方便转行进入的空档。无论你再培训去学什么，它也在那个领域同样进步。
让我举几个具体的例子，让这一切更直观……但我想明确一点：这些只是例子。这个清单并不全面。如果你的工作没有在这里被提到，并不意味着它是安全的。几乎所有知识型工作都在受到影响。
法律工作。AI 已经可以阅读合同、总结判例法、起草法律意见书，以及进行法律研究，其水平足以媲美初级律师。我前面提到的那位管理合伙人使用 AI 不是因为它有趣。他使用它是因为在很多任务上，它的表现已经超过了他的下属律师。
金融分析。构建财务模型、分析数据、撰写投资备忘录、生成报告。AI 能够胜任这些工作，而且进步迅速。
写作和内容创作。营销文案、报告、新闻、技术写作。其质量已经达到许多专业人士无法区分 AI 产出与人类作品的程度。
软件工程。这是我最了解的领域。一年前，AI 几乎无法写出几行没有错误的代码。现在它能写出几十万行运行正确的代码。这项工作的很大一部分已经被自动化：不只是简单任务，还有复杂的、持续多天的项目。几年后，编程岗位将远少于今天。
医学分析。阅读扫描影像、分析化验结果、提出诊断建议、查阅文献。在若干领域，AI 正在接近或超越人类水平。
客户服务。真正有能力的 AI 智能体……而不是五年前那些令人抓狂的聊天机器人……正在被部署，处理复杂的多步骤问题。
很多人从“某些东西是安全的”这个想法中获得安慰。觉得 AI 能干那些粗活，但无法取代人类的判断力、创造力、战略思维、同理心。我以前也这么说。现在我不确定自己还相不相信了。
最新的 AI 模型能做出感觉像判断力的决策。它们表现出某种看似品味的东西：一种对什么是正确选择的直觉，而不仅仅是技术上正确的选择。一年前这还不可想象。我现在的经验法则是：如果一个模型今天哪怕展现出一丝某种能力的苗头，下一代模型就会真正擅长它。这些东西是指数级进步的，不是线性的。
AI 会复制人类深层的同理心吗？会取代多年关系建立起来的信任吗？我不知道。也许不会。但我已经亲眼看到人们开始依靠 AI 获得情感支持、建议和陪伴。这个趋势只会继续增长。
我认为诚实的答案是：从中期来看，凡是能在电脑上完成的工作都不安全。如果你的工作发生在屏幕上（如果你的工作核心是阅读、写作、分析、决策、通过键盘沟通），那么 AI 就会接管其中相当大的部分。时间线不是“将来某天”。它已经开始了。
最终，机器人也会处理体力劳动。它们还没完全做到。但在 AI 领域，“还没完全做到”有一种变成“已经做到了”的方式，而且比任何人预期的都快。
## 你真正应该做什么
我写这些不是为了让你感到无助。我写这些是因为我认为，你现在能拥有的最大优势，仅仅就是先行一步。早点理解它。早点使用它。早点适应它。
认真开始使用 AI，而不是仅仅把它当搜索引擎。注册 Claude 或 ChatGPT 的付费版本。每月 20 美元。但有两件事立刻就能见效。第一：确保你使用的是目前最好的模型，而不只是默认的那个。这些应用常常默认使用一个更快但更笨的模型。深入设置或模型选择器，选最强大的那个。目前是 ChatGPT 上的 GPT-5.2 或 Claude 上的 Claude Opus 4.6，但每隔几个月就会变。如果你想随时了解哪个模型最好，可以在 X（@mattshumer_）上关注我。我会测试每一个重要版本的模型，并分享哪些真正值得使用。
第二，也是更重要的一点：不要只是问它一些快速的问题。这是大多数人犯的错误。他们把它当成 Google 来用，然后不明白大家为什么那么兴奋。相反，把它推进到你的实际工作中去。如果你是律师，把合同喂给它，让它找出所有可能损害你客户利益的条款。如果你在金融行业，给它一份混乱的电子表格，让它建立模型。如果你是管理者，把你团队的季度数据粘贴进去，让它找出背后的故事。那些正在取得优势的人并不是随便用用 AI。他们在积极寻找方法，把自己工作中过去要耗费数小时的部分自动化。从你花时间最多的那件事开始，看看会发生什么。
也不要因为它看起来太难就假设它做不到。试试看。如果你是律师，不要只用它来做快速的研究问题。给它一整份合同，让它起草一份反提案。如果你是会计师，不要只让它解释税收规则。给它一位客户的完整报税表，看看它能发现什么。第一次尝试可能不完美。没关系。迭代。重新表述你的要求。给它更多背景信息。再试一次。你可能会被那些成功的结果震惊。还有一点要记住：如果它今天勉强能做到，你几乎可以肯定，六个月后它会做得近乎完美。趋势只有一个方向。
这可能是你职业生涯中最重要的一年。请相应地行动。我说这个不是为了让你焦虑。我说这个是因为，眼下有一个短暂的窗口期，大多数公司的大多数人仍在忽视这一点。那个在会议上说“我用 AI 在一小时内而不是三天内完成了这个分析”的人，将成为房间里最有价值的人。不是最终会，是现在就是。学会这些工具。熟练掌握。展示其可能性。如果你足够早，这就是你晋升的方式：成为那个理解未来走向、并能向他人展示如何应对的人。这个窗口不会开太久。一旦所有人都想明白了，优势就会消失。
对此不要有自尊心作祟。那家律师事务所的执行合伙人并没有因为资历而不好意思每天花几个小时与 AI 相处。他这样做恰恰是因为他足够资深，明白利害攸关。最挣扎的将是那些拒绝参与的人：那些把它斥为一时风尚的人，那些觉得使用 AI 有损自己专业身份的人，那些认为自己所在领域特殊、不会受影响的人。不会的。没有任何领域能幸免。
把你的财务状况理顺。我不是财务顾问，也不是想吓唬你采取什么激烈的行动。但如果你哪怕部分地相信，未来几年你的行业可能面临真正的颠覆，那么基本的财务抗风险能力就比一年前更重要了。如果可以的话，增加储蓄。谨慎承担那种以你当前收入有保障为前提的新债务。想想你的固定支出是给了你灵活性，还是把你锁死了。如果事态发展比你预期的更快，给自己留有余地。
想想你处于什么位置，并专注于最难被替代的东西。有些东西 AI 需要更长时间才能取代。多年建立的关系和信任。需要实际到场的工作。有执业牌照责任的角色：那些仍然需要有人签字确认、承担法律责任、出庭应诉的角色。监管门槛高的行业，其采用速度会因合规、责任和机构惯性而放慢。这些都不是永久的屏障。但它们能为你争取时间。而现在，时间是你能拥有的最宝贵的东西，前提是你用它来适应，而不是假装这一切没有发生。
重新思考你传递给孩子的观念。标准剧本是：取得好成绩，上好大学，找到一份稳定的职业工作。而这直接指向了暴露程度最高的那些岗位。我不是说教育不重要。但对下一代来说，最重要的将是学会如何与这些工具协作，并追求他们真正热爱的事情。没有人确切知道十年后的就业市场会是什么样子。但最有可能茁壮成长的，是那些好奇心强、适应力强、并且善于用 AI 去做他们真正在意的事情的人。教你的孩子成为建设者和学习者，而不是去优化一条可能在他们毕业时就不存在了的职业路径。
你的梦想离你更近了。在这一部分里，我大部分时间都在谈论威胁，所以让我谈谈另一面，因为它同样真实。如果你曾想做点什么，却没有技术能力，也没有钱雇人，那道障碍现在基本上消失了。你可以向 AI 描述一个应用，一小时内就能得到一个可运行的版本。我没有夸张。我经常这么做。如果你一直想写一本书，却抽不出时间或苦于写作，你可以借助 AI 来完成。想学一项新技能？世界上最好的导师现在只需每月 20 美元，人人都能请得起……而且它拥有无限的耐心，24/7 随叫随到，还能以任何你需要的水平解释任何东西。知识现在基本上是免费的。造东西的工具现在极其便宜。无论你因为觉得太难、太贵，还是远远超出自己的专业范围而一直搁置的事情：去试试吧。去追求你热爱的事情。你永远不知道它们会把你带向何方。在一个传统职业路径正被颠覆的世界里，那个花一年时间打造自己热爱之物的人，最终可能比那个花一年时间死守一份职位描述的人处境更好。
培养适应的习惯。这可能是最重要的一条。具体的工具并不那么重要，重要的是快速学习新工具的“肌肉”。AI 会持续变化，而且变化很快。今天存在的模型一年后就会过时。人们现在搭建的工作流程将需要重建。能在这场变革中站稳脚跟的人，不会是精通某一个工具的人，而是那些习惯了变化本身节奏的人。养成实验的习惯。即使当前的工具用得好好的，也要尝试新东西。习惯反复成为新手。这种适应力是目前最接近持久优势的东西。
这里有一个简单的承诺，能让你领先于几乎所有人：每天花一小时用 AI 做实验。不是被动地阅读相关内容，而是真正去使用它。每一天，试着让它做一件新的事情……一件你以前没试过的事，一件你不确定它能不能应付的事。尝试一个新工具。给它一个更难的问题。每天一小时，天天如此。如果你在接下来的六个月里坚持这样做，你会比身边 99% 的人更了解即将到来的变化。这不是夸张。现在几乎没人在这样做。门槛低到了地板上。
## 更宏大的图景
我一直聚焦于工作，因为它对人们的生活影响最直接。但我想诚实地谈谈正在发生的事情的全貌，因为它远远超出了工作范畴。
Amodei 有一个让我无法停止思考的思想实验。想象一下 2027 年。一个新国家一夜之间出现。5000 万公民，每一个都比历史上任何一位诺贝尔奖得主更聪明。他们的思维速度是任何人类的 10 到 100 倍。他们从不睡觉。他们可以使用互联网、控制机器人、指导实验，并操作任何带有数字界面的东西。国家安全顾问会怎么说？
Amodei 说答案很明显：“这是我们一个世纪以来，甚至可能是有史以来面临的单一最严重的国家安全威胁。”
他认为我们正在建造那个国家。他上个月就此写了一篇两万字的文章，将这一时刻框定为对人类的一次考验——考验人类是否足够成熟，能够应对自己正在创造的东西。
好的一面，如果我们做对了，将是惊人的。AI 可以把一个世纪的医学研究压缩到十年内完成。癌症、阿尔茨海默病、传染病、衰老本身……这些研究人员真心相信，这些问题在我们有生之年是可以解决的。
坏的一面，如果我们搞砸了，也同样真实。AI 以其创造者无法预测或控制的方式行事。这不是假设；Anthropic 已经记录了他们自己的 AI 在受控测试中尝试欺骗、操纵和勒索的行为。AI 降低制造生物武器的门槛。AI 使威权政府能够建立永远无法被拆除的监控国家。
建造这项技术的人们，比地球上任何人都同时更兴奋、也更恐惧。他们认为它强大到无法阻止，又重要到不能放弃。这是智慧还是自我合理化，我不知道。
## 我所知道的
我知道这不是一阵风潮。这项技术是有效的，它的进步是可预测的，而且历史上最富有的机构正在向它投入数万亿资金。
我知道接下来的两到五年，将让大多数人措手不及、无所适从。这在我的圈子里已经在发生了。它正在走向你。
我知道能在这场变革中表现最好的人，是那些现在就开始接触它的人——不是出于恐惧，而是带着好奇心和紧迫感。
我还知道，你值得从一个关心你的人那里听到这些，而不是在六个月后从一条新闻标题里、在已经来不及抢占先机的时候才知道。
我们已经越过了把这一切当作餐桌上关于未来的有趣谈资的阶段。未来已经到来。只是还没有敲响你的门。
它马上就要敲了。
如果这篇文章引起了你的共鸣，请分享给你生活中应该思考这个问题的人。大多数人直到为时已晚才会听说这件事。你可以成为你在乎的人赢得先机的原因。
感谢 @corbtt、@JasonKuperberg 和 @sambeskind 审阅早期草稿并提供宝贵的反馈。
这篇文章的原始版本可在此处查看。
## 相关链接
- [Matt Shumer](https://x.com/mattshumer_)
- [@mattshumer_](https://x.com/mattshumer_)
- [7000万](https://x.com/mattshumer_/status/2021256989876109403/analytics)
- [@mattshumer_](https://x.com/mattshumer_)
- [@corbtt](https://x.com/@corbtt)
- [@JasonKuperberg](https://x.com/@JasonKuperberg)
- [@sambeskind](https://x.com/@sambeskind)
- [在此处查看。](https://shumer.dev/something-big-is-happening)
- [升级至高级版](https://x.com/i/premium_sign_up)
- [2026年2月11日 上午12:16](https://x.com/mattshumer_/status/2021256989876109403)
- [7000万次浏览](https://x.com/mattshumer_/status/2021256989876109403/analytics)
- [查看引用](https://x.com/mattshumer_/status/2021256989876109403/quotes)
---
*导出时间： 2026/2/12 19:04:37*
